By Lucullus

When I first started playing, two masters took me aside and taught me the facts of life. Chuck Treen and Ted Gross had different approaches to the game, but they each had, in their own unique fashion, managed to win 5 games. Their system was simple. Add the hit percentages of your forces that will probably fire. If they add up to a number higher than the defenders hit points, then you'll probably win.

Lets see how it works in a simple situation:

You want to take a neutral town with 1 INF. You'll need to score 2 hits. 1 for the INF & 1 for the City Hit. You have 3 INF nearby. GREEN INF fire at 40%. .40 + .40 + .40 = 1.2 average hits

Conclusion: Probably you'll hit the town but you won't kill the INF. Don't do it.

If, however, you can redeploy an INF into the town on phase 5. Then, if your 3 INF arrive on an earlier phase, you will probably make 1.2 hits the early phase and 1.2 or 1.6 hits on phase 5. 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 average hits. This is more than the 2 hits needed, and you'll probably take the city.

You'll notice that I often use the word probably. Probably, is as good as it gets, in a war.

This calculation also works well if you have mixed units in the attack.

You want to take a neutral with 2 INF. You'll need to score 3 hits this time. You have 2 GREEN INF and 1 GREEN TNK within 3 squares of the town. .65 + .40 + .40 = 1.45 average hits. Not enough.

Lets say you can add a GREEN FTR on phase 4 and the TNK is killed. 1.45 hits again. Maybe you'll be successful, maybe not.

Add 1 redeployed INF on phase 5 and you should win even if you lose your FTR. Probably.

Lets take a nastier situation: You have 10 INF at various training levels, 1 MEC, & 1 ART in a 6 step city. Your hits are 1x10 INF =10, 1x3 MEC =3, 1x1 ART = 1, 1xCityhit =1, plus 2MIL & 2 INF = 4 from your city builds. You have a total 19 hits.

You are attacked by 2 BATs, a CRU and 2 DES. The enemy fleet hit points consists of 5x2 BAT =10, 3x1 CRU =3, 2x2 DES =4, + at least one INF or SPF. The enemy fleet has a total of 18 average hits. Who will win?

Phase 1: First, you have to divide the fight into categories of fire. Catagory 1: The BATs will fire 6 times and score 5 hits. (5x.85 = 4.25 average hits.) Well, they should miss once. Right? Dead units: 1 city hit, 2 MIL, 1 INF. Your ART shoots & hits his DES. Cat 2: His CRU fires twice and hits 2 INF. Your MEC fires 3 times & hits the CRU once.

Cat 3: His 2 DES fires 2 times and hit Your MEC once. Your surviving INF fire 6 times and hit 1 BAT, 1 CRU & 1 DES, destroying it.

Phase 2: He unloads a SPF from the surviving DES, triggering another round of combat. (Nasty of him.)

Cat 1: BATs = 6 hits. Dead: 4 INF, 1 ART, 1 MEC hit. Your ART took out the CRU before it died.

Cat 2: Your MEC = 2 hits. 1 SPF. 1 DES.

Cat 3: His DES misses. Your 2 surviving INF score 1 hit on his same BAT.

Phase 3: Triggered by the production of your INF. (Why did I do that?)

Cat 1: BATs = 4 hits. Dead: MEC, 3 INF. Surviving: His 2 BATs.

Can you play taps? Can you devise better tactics after reading this analysis?

The key is to be realisticly pessimistic when applying your percentages. A BAT shooting at 85% will get 2 hits 1 time, and 3 hits the next. Using this method you can make some sense of even the messiest combat situation. Probably you'll be right.

One final thought. I challenge you math types out there to give me a more rational mathematical formula for resolving combat. I'd prefer it to be readable by us non-math types. I'll publish what can be understood. Good luck!